Chapter Six: Predicting Vs Predictability

To understand why we do not want to be “predictable” we can usefully investigate our own ability to predict. What if you could predict what the questions on next week's Biology test would be? What if you could predict when Zebras would be on sale in South Africa. What if you could predict who would win the NBA finals? What if you could predict where a lost child would be found? (Make up your own example of predicting a “why,” it's not easy.)

Clearly this predicting stuff is great... we need to bottle this stuff and sell it! There is a flawed logic that says: If predicting others is good for me and gives me an edge/advantage, the being predicted must not be good for me.

Let's think it through: If students can predict questions on a test, it defeats the purpose of testing. In reality, if you know the material, any set of questions is OK. The teacher is just spot checking you. Secretly the teacher wants you to do well, just not cheat. If you know when Zebras will be on sale, you will show up exactly then, and I can't sell them for as much. In point of fact, you can get the best price on Zebras right around Christmas time... they make lousy Christmas presents, and Zoos are not much patronized at that time of year. If you could predict who would win the NBA finals, everyone could predict it. There would be no point in gambling on it. As for predicting where a lost child would be found? The child is not bent on being un-predictable – that would be hiding. This child is lost and he really would benefit tremendously by finding himself predictable.

Having established then that predictability is not all bad, it remains the case that most of us (my secret is out – I don't mind being predicted all that much,) dislike our character being anticipated?

Calling for a trumpet flourish and a drum roll... "Trumpet flourish, drum roll please:"

People do not like to be predicted because they think it makes them look simple.

I didn't capitalize it because I wanted you to read the other stuff, not just skip down to this part. But it's IMPORTANT, so I decided to put it in it's own paragraph. Keep in mind that even stupid people are complicated. But we – and please pay attention to my word - “ASSOCIATE” simplicity with stupidity. The aforementioned Chairman of the Federal Reserve is certainly not stupid. He is taking many factors into account, and carefully weighing many possible outcomes. And yet careful observation has shown that if he carries two brief cases to his main meeting, interest rates are going up.